OP-ED: Yield for 2023 smarter transportation predictions

It can be tricky to predict transportation trends in a world that is a bit unpredictable. However, as we go full steam ahead into 2023, we look towards the horizon and do just that. What will be trending in the world of smarter transportation for the year ahead and perhaps beyond?

While the landscape may not look vastly different from 2022, it is clear that commuter patterns have changed, and it is unlikely that we will go back to a pre-2019 transit space.

As we take a closer look, the overarching points building the connective bridge are equity, reliability, accessibility, flexibility and safety — and the importance of transit agencies building rider trust and putting that first. Now more than ever, it is critical for the transportation industry to reestablish rider confidence, so commuters can once again depend on public transit to safely and reliably get them where they need to be when they need to be there.

Return to the office

A recent study revealed that commuter numbers, especially public transit riders, have dropped in the wake of the telework boom brought on by the pandemic. However, many organizations are now encouraging their employees to return to the office. As such, people are continuing to adapt to a new normal in their commutes as they head back into the office.

Since many organizations are operating on flexible schedules, it requires transportation systems to be more flexible as well. Changing commuter patterns translates into less predictable journeys that require more agility. People are coming into the office on different days and different times, which will impact traffic patterns differently.

Faced with fewer riders that expect more, technology provides agencies with the necessary flexible, digital systems to meet fluctuating rider demands. As we move into 2023, there will be an increased focus on bringing stakeholders into the conversation to provide feedback to agencies in order to optimize public transit systems and regain ridership. The transportation industry must look at what can be done to encourage pre-COVID transit riders to return to transit.

It will be important for transit authorities to work with employers to create more organization around people coming back into the office. The notion of back to work creates expectations from some transit authorities, as an MIT study found that people value their cars three times more now than pre-pandemic because of reliability, and transit is up against that.

Moving the Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) needle

Reliability has been a leading issue for riders since the pandemic, and we suspect there will be continued evolution of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) to integrate multiple modes of transit into a single user experience to simplify journey planning and improve commuter satisfaction. Most likely 2023 is not the year of MaaS, but it will be another year in the progression of bringing MaaS to life.

There will be a heavy emphasis on reliability, accessibility, safety and communication to riders as expectations will be bigger than before. Good, accurate information about the arrival of vehicles will be more important than ever. In addition, encouraging users to get onto shared-use mobility, rideshare or taking a scooter will be key. We will continue to see agencies providing users with the ability to engage with multiple modes and on demand.

However, there are still a few questions that agencies need to consider in 2023:

• How will transit agencies integrate a link between riders to let them know a certain mode of transit could possibly not leave or arrive on time?
• How do we integrate all things transit into a single user experience?

Spotlight on safety

In 2023, safety will continue to be a priority to address the rising number of fatalities on roads. According to the National Highway Safety Administration, vulnerable road users, such as pedestrians, cyclists and wheelchair users, accounted for approximately 20 percent of the 42,915 people who were killed in motor vehicle crashes in 2021 — an increase of 13 percent over 2020.

Vehicle safety is critical when it comes to protecting vulnerable road users. Technology, such as sensors at intersections, helps identify areas of risk to vulnerable road users and can determine what changes need to be made to address safety risks.

With federal funding now in place, we will start to see the impact next year, with investments going towards projects like smarter intersections, multimodal transport and improved safety, accessibility, equity and reliability in public transit. To achieve policy goals, we will also continue to see increased digitalization and integration of mobility systems to optimize networks and improve efficiency.

Electrification and fare capping

Aside from these larger umbrella themes, we’ll also see two major trends in 2023:

1. Electrification – Transit plays a large role in the important conversations happening around climate change. There will be a continued investment in the electrification of buses and other modes of transportation, safe streets, smart grants and more. However, do not allow electrification to be the end-all-be-all for emissions control; it is only a part of the discussion.
2. Fare Capping – It is imperative that people are not penalized for their financial circumstances. During the height of the pandemic, the people who relied the most on transit were the frontline workers, who often rely on minimum wage. Ensuring transit is still reliable for them is important.

The road ahead is paved for success if we develop plans that work to make safer and smarter transit, streets and roads for all a priority. Let’s work together to move the needle when it comes to the equity, reliability, accessibility, flexibility and safety of the transportation network in 2023 and beyond