Operators, Managers May Directly Control Ridership Increases

Mechanisms to increase transit ridership are in the hands of transit authorities. In general, they should not have to depend on outside factors to be successful. Rather, they can adjust seven internal factors under their control. That's the conclusion of a new peer-reviewed research report from the Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI). Investigating the Determining Factors for Transit Travel Demand by Bus Mode in US Metropolitan Statistical Areas is available for free download from http://transweb.sjsu.edu/project/1101.html.  The principal investigators were Bhuiyan Alam, PhD, and Hilary Nixon, PhD, assisted by Qiong Zhang.

"The nature of transit travel demand is at the heart of transportation policy making and the success of transit systems," said Dr. Alam. "Unfortunately, most of the existing studies have focused on a single or a few transit systems or metropolitan areas to analyze the determinants of transit travel demand. This study investigates those determining factors for bus ridership in the United States at Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2010."

Study results revealed that only one external factor – gasoline price – affected bus ridership. However, seven internal factors controlled by bus operators also affect ridership. These include transit supply, fares, average headway, transit coverage, service intensity, revenue hours, and safety.

Dr. Alam explained, "The findings are significant because this is a comprehensive study that includes all Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the US. Keeping these results in mind, transit policy makers and planners can create plans and policies that provide efficient transit systems that taxpayers naturally want to use."

This is good news for transit operators because the research indicates that they have more control over ridership than conventional wisdom – or even some previous research – indicates.

Despite increased subsidies for transit systems and maintaining relatively low fares, national bus ridership hit a peak in 1948, declined, and then remained relatively steady since the 1970s. This new report says that several studies have been conducted to investigate the reasons, but most were limited in their scope or they drew conclusions that could not be applied generally. Some of them also gave greater weight to outside factors that proved insignificant in this study – such as the percentage of immigrant population, the percentage of carless households, and median household income.