CA: Will San Diego County voters pass another transportation sales tax increase?

Supporters of a countywide sales-tax hike on the November ballot say it would make essential transportation improvements needed across San Diego County — but opponents are concerned its benefits wouldn’t be evenly spread.

“This has to be a balanced plan, and not just San Diego-centric,” Supervisor Jim Desmond, one of its most vocal opponents, said last week.

And in an election year where voters in 10 local cities are also deciding on local sales tax hikes of their own, Measure G could have some voters think they’re seeing double.

Richard Auxier, a principal policy associate at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, pointed out that historically, if there are two tax increases on the ballot, voters will approve one but not the other. But he acknowledged that sales tax increases are often local governments’ best way to raise money.

“California has really tough restrictions on property tax revenue, and this has been going on since Proposition 13, and it means that there is a lot of wealth in the state that is simply not accessible to the local governments,” he added. That, he said, “is tying the hands of policymakers.”

Everyone in San Diego County currently pays at least 7.75% in sales tax — the state rate of 7.25%, plus the half-cent TransNet surcharge that county voters approved to pay for transportation projects.

On top of that, many local governments add surcharges. A few have added a full cent to make their rate 8.75%, the highest in the region, but some large California cities have even higher rates.

If passed, Measure G would generate an estimated $350 million a year for transportation projects by pushing the region’s base sales tax rate to 8.25%.

Of that, half — or about $175 million — would go to public transit, funding upgrades to the coastal rail line to prevent bluff collapse, the creation of a rail connector to the airport and new rapid transit routes from population and job centers in North and South counties.

About $94.5 million — 27% — would go to road and traffic flow projects, such as adding fire evacuation routes on state Route 67 and in other fire-prone areas, funding highway improvements on state Routes 56, 76, 78, 94 and 125 as well as Interstates 5, 8, 15 and 805, and creating carpool lanes and other traffic-reduction programs.

Another $42 million — 12% — would go toward transit operations and maintenance for the region’s two transit agencies, the Metropolitan Transit System and North County Transit District. And $24.5 million — 7% — would go to local streets, maintenance and active transportation. Half of that chunk would go to the county’s local return funds, which fund things like repaving, filling potholes and fixing storm drains.

If the measure is approved, the county would collect the tax revenue in a special dedicated fund to help pay for road repairs, carpool lanes and expanding bus and rail transportation. A citizens committee would be appointed to oversee the spending.

Supporters say the transportation improvements Measure G would fund will make commutes easier throughout the county, with funds guaranteed to go directly to the region. They say it will also protect the environment by helping to preserve open spaces and natural habitat and prevent pollution from reaching waterways, beaches and bays.

Critics say it’s unnecessary and would only add to the existing half-cent transportation tax, which voters approved in 1987 and extended in 2004 and which is administered by the San Diego Association of Governments. Critics are concerned that it would steer more money to SANDAG, which already faces scrutiny for its management and processes.

A July poll for The San Diego Union-Tribune found that more voters supported than opposed the measure — with 48% in support, 38% opposed and 14% undecided. Because the measure was put on the ballot by a citizens initiative, it needs only a simple majority to pass.

When a similar sales tax measure was presented to county voters in 2016, it fell short of the needed two-thirds support it needed.

That campaign had been drafted directly by SANDAG, whose ambitious plans to expand rail service and build big transportation hubs are not possible without a major cash infusion. It failed in part due to controversy over SANDAG’s overestimation of how much revenue the TransNet tax had collected.

Last year, Let’s Go! San Diego — the coalition of unions, businesses, firefighters and environmental groups now known as Yes on Measure G — began pushing to try for another tax hike. A signature campaign initially fell short but this time around got the support it needed to get Measure G on the ballot.

Some of the most vocal opposition to the measure has come from local Republican elected officials who gathered last week to lay out their case against it.

They say it’s an unwarranted tax increase that would primarily benefit the city of San Diego and nearby urban areas, and they are frustrated that more of its funding wouldn’t go to roads.

“Unfortunately, all of the choices have not been equitable throughout the county,” said San Marcos Mayor Rebecca Jones.

She and other opponents argue the existing TransNet tax hasn’t helped their communities as promised. They point to still-unfinished connectors for various freeways, such as state Route 78 to Interstate 5, express lanes throughout the county, freeway widenings and a busway from San Ysidro to Sorrento Mesa.

“If you look at cities that are outside of the urban core,” Jones added, “none of them have seen any of the taxes that they have actually paid go to any improvements to help their quality of life and their businesses.”

Campaign filings show support for Measure G raising far more money in contributions than opposition to it.

Between July 1 and Sept. 30, the campaign opposing the measure raised nearly $131,000 — less than a quarter of the $612,000 raised by supporters, disclosures show.

That committee, called Stop the SANDAG Tax, has raised a total of about $142,000 this year, primarily from local businesses and business owners.

Opposition also got a handful of large donations from independent expenditure committees, including $25,000 from the New Car Dealers Association PAC and $10,000 from the Deputy Sheriffs’ Association of San Diego County PAC.

The campaign supporting the measure, led by the nonprofit San Diego Alliance for Traffic Relief, Reliable Transit & Jobs, raised a total of nearly $1.7 million this year, with big donations from construction businesses and labor unions.

Those include the Southern California Partnership for Jobs, which donated just under $800,000 this year, plus $400,000 from two unions representing electrical workers and $225,000 from a carpenters union.

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