GA: After Transit Tax Defeat, Cobb Asks: What Now?

In Cobb, 61% of people say improved public transit is “very important” for metro Atlanta’s future, according to a 2024 Atlanta Regional Commission survey of 641 residents.

Another 27% say it’s “somewhat important,” and only 8% say it’s not important.

But the same survey found that roughly half of residents aren’t willing to pay more taxes for transit. Asked if they are “willing to pay more in taxes to fund expanded regional public transit that includes buses and rail,” 50% of Cobb respondents said no, while 45% said yes.

Those findings are mirrored by last week’s election results. By a margin of 62% to 38%, Cobb voters rejected a 30-year, 1% sales tax which would have funded transit.

The Mobility Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax (M-SPLOST) would have brought unprecedented investments to Cobb, including rapid bus routes, on-demand “microtransit” and new transit hubs. Its goals included easing congestion, expanding transportation options and spurring economic development.

Supporters said it was needed to accommodate future population and job growth. Cobb, with 777,000 people, is expected to grow to 914,000 residents by 2050.

“The idea is to get in front of that and correct a problem, before it becomes a bigger problem,” said Democratic Cobb Commissioner Monique Sheffield, who supported the tax. “But obviously, we will go back as a board … and just determine some alternatives to still address the issues that we have concerning transportation.”

The defeat left county leaders without a clear path forward. There is broad agreement that Cobb, and metro Atlanta, need to address traffic congestion and plan for future growth. But there’s not consensus on what that looks like, or how it should be paid for.

‘We recalibrate’

In the ARC survey, roughly 4,000 respondents across metro Atlanta ranked the economy and crime as the top two problems for the region.

“Prior to the pandemic, transportation consistently ranked as the region’s top challenge,” the ARC noted. “This year, transportation came in fourth, with 11% of respondents choosing it as the region’s biggest problem.”

Historically, many have attributed anti-transit sentiment in Atlanta’s suburbs to racism. Former Cobb Commissioner Emmett Burton famously said the county should stock the Chattahoochee with piranha to keep MARTA out of Cobb.

But Cobb and Gwinnett are now majority-minority counties. And voters throughout Cobb, including in predominately Black and Democratic areas, voted against the tax.

“The most diverse county in the state of Georgia ( Gwinnett) overwhelmingly has said no three times,” said Jason Shepherd, former chair of the Cobb GOP.

State Rep. Don Parsons, R-north Cobb, has been in the county since the 1970s. He’s witnessed tremendous growth in residents, economic development, and with it all, traffic. There’s “no easy fix,” he said. “It’s going to take a lot of money, and it’s going to take some very detailed planning and ... (for) people to accept, if they want something done, that there’s going to be a cost to it.”

Baruch Feigenbaum of the libertarian Reason Foundation, who wrote about the tax for the conservative Georgia Public Policy Foundation, said sales taxes are the biggest funding source for transit across the U.S.

In Georgia, he doesn’t see any support for the state to use the gas tax, for instance, to fund transit.

If Cobb and Gwinnett are insistent on expanding transit, they may need to turn to other funding, such as property taxes, state or federal grants.

Feigenbaum said the counties may need to rethink how they provide transit by prioritizing microtransit or outsourcing it to ride-hailing companies.

Cobb Chairwoman Lisa Cupid, who spearheaded the tax, said she won’t stop looking for ways to improve transit.

“We recalibrate … meeting the citizens where they are, but also understanding where we should be as a county,” said Cupid, a Democrat, on election night. “This is not an issue that dies today, irrespective of what happens. We continue to move Cobb forward. Cobb has always invested in transportation, we continue to invest in transit.”

Republican Commissioner Keli Gambrill, who opposed the tax, said the county should focus on road projects, like toll lanes and reversible lanes, to alleviate congestion.

She also floated expanding CobbLinc service on popular routes, like the 10, and replacing less popular routes with microtransit service.

But a large investment in buses is not the solution, Gambrill said, citing the state’s plan to reduce service on its Xpress commuter service due to low ridership.

“Let’s get creative. … to me, expanding buses is not the answer,” Gambrill said.

Mableton Mayor Michael Owens was one of just two of Cobb’s seven mayors to endorse the tax. He said Cobb can prioritize immediate, visible improvements such as new bus stations, seek federal and state funding, and enable denser mixed-use development near existing transit.

“We will continue advocating for a bus route on Veterans Memorial Parkway,” Owens added, calling it a “longstanding need.”

Other officials said they want future decisions to be guided by feedback and input from residents, not what the government thinks people want.

Cupid pointed to a recently launched microtransit pilot program in south Cobb, as well as plans for the state to build toll lanes on Interstate 285, as steps toward improving congestion.

The county had pursued a 30-year tax so it would be more competitive in qualifying for federal grants. The length of the tax was a frequent target of critics.

With last week’s defeat, Sheffield said a five- or 10-year tax might be the way to move forward, even if it limits the projects Cobb can pursue.

Cupid, too, acknowledged Cobb may have to take a more piecemeal approach.

“Are we going to do it incrementally when the metro area is growing at a faster rate, if we feel comfortable, perhaps being behind?” Cupid said. “... Maybe we make that decision. But I perceive that Cobb County should continue to lead.”

Local vs. regional

Transit advocates have long criticized the state government for making scant investments in transit. State Rep. Teri Anulewicz, D- Smyrna, said it might take a visionary leader at the state level.

“It would certainly be helpful if the state took a leadership role,” she said.

While her colleague, state Rep. David Wilkerson, D- Powder Springs, opposed the tax, he agreed with her on that point.

“You have to have a regional solution. That’s the only way you can do this. It can’t be each county doing their own thing,” he said.

Political operative Brian Robinson, who worked for former Republican Gov. Nathan Deal, said there’s “no doubt” that metro Atlanta needs more mass transit. Without that, “this will become a gridlocked region, even worse than what it is now.”

“Sometimes, problems have to reach a point where the solution is less painful than the problem. And obviously voters are doing a cost benefit analysis and don’t feel like they are at that juncture,” Robinson said. “... One of the problems with waiting more, is that once we do implement whatever needs doing, it will be much more expensive.”

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