CS: SMART outlines 5-year agenda, but tax uncertainty looms

Over the next five years, Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit is planning to spend upwards of $774 million to take the rail to Cloverdale, pave more paths and complete other capital improvements.

In all, financial projections in the draft strategic plan show SMART will spend about $1.29 billion through 2030. Although the plan does not call for a renewal of the agency's critical quarter-cent sales tax that expires in 2029, the financial assumption is "that voters will reauthorize this funding source prior to the sunset date," the document says.

"SMART is in a period of rapid expansion, active construction, and ridership growth," the draft plan says.

"By the conclusion of this Strategic Plan period in 2030, the system is envisioned to be nearly complete, with long-term operating funds secured," the plan says. "Agency and community priorities will continue to shift as the SMART system approaches buildout, expands services for the community, and matures as the leading transit system in the North Bay."

SMART, which operates passenger rail service from Larkspur to the Santa Rosa airport, has long planned to build a bicycle and pedestrian path along its planned route from Larkspur to Cloverdale.

The draft strategic plan reflects on the accomplishments of the past five years, including work to complete 9 miles of path, and advancement on rail extension efforts to bring new stations to Petaluma and Windsor.

The new Petaluma North station is nearly complete and expected to be operational by the end of the year. The district will shut down all 12 train stations in both counties on the weekend of Dec. 14 and 15 to prepare for the extended passenger service.

With regard to the sales tax, Measure Q is expected to provide about $51 million of the agency's estimated $122 million in revenue for this fiscal year. The draft strategic plan anticipates that sales taxes will provide about 26% of SMART's revenue between 2025 and 2030. The plan relies on pending grants, including upwards of $401 million to support the Healdsburg-to- Cloverdale rail extension.

"In order for us to do all the things we have in the plan, to make the progress we want to make, obviously we would have to assume that a sales tax was extended," said Eddy Cumins, general manager of SMART. "Our board has not made a decision with regards to timing."

With the expiration looming, however, Cumins said a tax extension would have to be approved by 2028. But there could be other options for SMART.

Gov. Gavin Newsom approved a bill this year enabling voters in the two counties to place a SMART train sales tax renewal measure on the ballot via citizens' initiative. This method would lower the approval threshold to a simple majority, down from a standard two-thirds requirement.

The 2020 tax renewal pitch received a 54% majority vote in favor, failing to meet the two-thirds threshold.

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the nine-county Bay Area planning agency, is also preparing a proposal for a regional transportation tax that is set to be reviewed next month. However, MTC planners are considering options for some counties to opt out.

"There are a lot of things that have to be worked out on that," Cumins said. "We're continuing to watch it. We're continuing to pay attention to see how that could affect us — whether or not Sonoma and Marin counties will be part of that."

"For me, I'm focused on just trying to make the train the best we possibly can as we continue to move forward and hit the goals we're setting in the strategic plan," Cumins said.

The topic of future tax revenue was not part of the board presentation last week that provided an overview of the document's goals and objectives.

At the Nov. 20 meeting, Planning Manager Emily Betts said SMART has approved a strategic plan every five years since the first one was authorized in 2009. Betts said the plan is built around the vision, mission and values of SMART.

"Our vision is smarter transportation for a smarter future," Betts said. "And our mission is that we connect communities. Our values are safety, integrity, stewardship and continuous improvement, and those are woven into all of the goals and actions that we included in the plan."

The plan focuses on efforts to increase ridership to 5,000-plus a day; design and construct several planned path segments; complete extensions to Cloverdale and pursue project development of an east-west rail connecting Novato to Suisun City; and ensure the long-term sustainability of freight.

WTB-TAM, an advocacy group for bicycle and pedestrian travel, submitted requests to SMART with detailed recommendations that would strengthen the agency's commitment to make progress on certain path segments.

At the meeting, Cumins said he is hesitant to include too many recommendations in the final plan.

"I'm really concerned about overcommitting and underdelivering," Cumins told the board. "This is an ambitious plan. If we could accomplish everything that is in this strategic plan, it's going to be a huge win. I think everybody would agree with that."

Cumins said that naming more priorities could stretch staff too thin, slowing progress. He said that doesn't mean officials are restricted by the plan, if there is time and money to pursue endeavors outside of its scope.

"We're committed to delivering what our community wants, but I think we have to be very careful about overcommitting in a document on something that we're not 100% sure we can deliver," Cumins said.

"I support that approach," said board member Kate Colin, the mayor of San Rafael. "We want to have those wins. We want to have those completions — as opposed to a small percentage of many, many projects — we actually want to complete them."

SMART is seeking public comment on the plan through Nov. 30. Comments can be emailed to [email protected].

The final five-year plan is expected to be presented to the board for adoption at its meeting on Dec. 18.

The draft document is available online at sonomamarintrain.org/strategic-plan.

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