CA: Poll: These Bay Area counties would pay higher taxes to save BART

Bay Area voters may be willing to pay higher taxes to save BART and other transit systems from financial ruin, according to a new poll from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.

The survey of 3,050 likely voters tested three tax scenarios that could go on the ballot in 2026. One proposed a half cent sales tax to last 10 years in four counties — Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and San Mateo. Another tweaked that blueprint, raising the San Francisco sales tax to seven-eighths of a cent and extending the period to 11 years.

A third, less popular option combined a half cent sales tax in all nine Bay Area counties with a parcel tax of less than a dime per building square foot, for 30 years.

Each scenario drew modest support from the people polled, with the nine-county "hybrid" proposal stumbling the most at 44%, and the four-county versions performing better: Fifty-four percent of respondents favored the half cent sales tax across the board, while 55% approved of the slightly higher rate in San Francisco.

All three options fell short of the two-thirds threshold currently needed for a tax measure to pass. The poll had a margin of error of 2.7 to 3.4 percentage points for each measure.

Overall, voters still feel hesitant about taxes, said Ruth Bernstein, CEO of EMC Research, the firm that conducted the poll. Presenting the findings at a commission meeting Friday morning, Bernstein emphasized that the language and details of each measure didn't seem to matter much in nudging people's opinions.

"It's really not about the individual items — it's more a value-based (judgment): 'Do I want to put more money towards transit, or do I not? '" Bernstein said.

To transportation officials desperate to wrangle money for public transit, the results seem heartening. Voters' sentiments appear to be shifting as more people rely on buses and trains to commute to downtown offices. Whereas a three-county survey by BART last year showed tepid support for sales and parcel taxes, the new poll suggested that a ballot measure has a chance of passing in 2026, though it would still be a heavy lift.

"We have a good news headline: 'The measure passing is not impossible,'" said Commissioner Rebecca Kaplan, adding the ballot measure would only require a bare 50% majority to pass if members of the public sponsor it as a citizen initiative. She and others acknowledged that the two-thirds threshold does not seem attainable.

Bernstein warned that "more work needs to be done to figure out how we pull at people's heartstrings." Messaging tested thus far, which centers on funding deficits, climate change and the importance of transit to stave off traffic congestion, hasn't quite landed with voters.

Efforts are already underway at the state Capitol to scrounge up funds for bus and rail systems devastated by COVID and the subsequent rise of remote work, but of which led to a drop in ridership. This week, state Sens. Scott Wiener, a San Francisco Democrat, and Jesse Arreguin, a Democrat from Berkeley, announced they would seek $2 billion in California's next budget to salvage transit systems throughout the state.

By the end of March, Wiener and Arreguin expect to introduce a state bill that would enable a regional measure to land on Bay Area ballots in 2026. He tried pressing similar legislation last year, but had to abandon it after confronting staunch political opposition.

"Our public transit agencies in the Bay Area are on a lifeline," Arreguin said in a statement that conveyed the urgency of the situation. "Unless we secure bridge funding and a regional revenue measure, BART, MUNI and other major operators will have to make deep cuts."

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