CA: A bill to save Bay Area transit from financial disaster is back on the table. It’ll need voters’ approval, too

Bay Area legislators were set to reintroduce a bill on Monday that would place a funding measure on the ballot in 2026 aimed at saving the region’s beleaguered public transportation sector from financial ruin.

The bill, authored by state Sen. Scott Wiener, a San Francisco Democrat, and state Sen. Jesse Arreguin, a Democrat from Berkeley, would authorize San Francisco, Contra Costa and Alameda counties to put a 30-year half-cent sales tax measure on the November ballot next year, which would fund BART, MUNI, Caltrain and AC Transit. San Mateo and Santa Clara counties could opt in by July 31 to include their transit agencies, such as the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, in the measure.

It’s not yet clear how much money the new funding measure would generate.

“We must do everything we can to strengthen our public transportation systems to prevent major service cuts,” Wiener said in a statement.

During the pandemic, ridership across all Bay Area transit systems plummeted and sent those agencies hurtling toward a “fiscal cliff” as operating revenue failed to cover expenses. While ridership has rebounded somewhat, it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

In 2023, lawmakers secured $5.1 billion in one-time state funding that allowed transit agencies to temporarily avoid service cuts. But without a more sustainable funding source, those agencies could be forced to shut stations and reduce services.

Even if Wiener and Arreguin’s bill passes and voters do get a chance to weigh in on the sales tax, the timing would be tight. The 2023 emergency funding is set to run out in mid-2026, ahead of any vote. To avoid the forecasted $800 million deficit across Muni, Caltrain, BART and AC Transit, Arreguin is pushing for an extra $2 billion in gap funding from the Legislature to tide those agencies over.

The 2024 statewide election results indicated that voters have little appetite for new taxes, as inflation reduces their spending power and compresses budgets. California voters rejected a measure that would have lowered the threshold for local bond approval to 55% of the vote from two-thirds.

A 2023 poll by the Bay Area News Group and Joint Venture Silicon Valley of 1,802 registered voters in Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and San Mateo counties found that 56% of respondents agreed that commuter rail is important for the Bay Area and must be maintained even if it costs taxpayers more money. But when they were asked how transit should be funded specifically, voters were less enthusiastic. Just 22% said that agencies should raise their fares, 18% would support higher bridge tolls, 16% would raise gas taxes. Only 11% backed raising the sales tax to pay for transit.

Arreguin and Wiener’s initial focus on San Francisco, Alameda and Contra Costa counties could be a way to get around opposition raised over last year’s Senate Bill 1031 from local leaders in Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin and Sonoma counties.

Santa Clara County officials said they would oppose the tax measure, which they worried would threaten their own push to have voters reauthorize the local sales taxes that fund the Valley Transportation Authority.

Other leaders in Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin and Sonoma counties expressed concern that the proportion of revenue from the measure sent back to their communities might not be equal to the amount of tax revenue they would generate.

Meanwhile, some transit authorities refused to back the bill because it would have required a report on the potential benefits of consolidating the Bay Area’s 27 transit agencies — a move that some transit advocates say would help to reduce costs and overhead.

Arreguin and Wiener’s bill makes a nod to the consolidation study proposed last year but does not go as far. Instead, it would require transportation agencies to make changes to improve financial efficiency and coordination with other systems to receive funding.

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