Bay Area polls show voters support tax increases to maintain transit services

A poll was conducted in California’s Bay Area  by the EMC Research team to gauge interest in options for a potential transportation tax measure that could avert deep service cuts to Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), Caltrain and other local transit agencies. This tax measure would also spur implementation of the Bay Area Transit Transformation Action Plan to improve the customer experience for transit riders.

State senators Scott Wiener (D-11) and Jesse Arreguín (D-7)  last month introduced Senate Bill 63 to authorize placement of such a measure on the November 2026 ballot. 

The poll found that a majority (54 percent) of voters in the four California counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and San Mateo would vote yes on a half-cent sales tax to avoid major transit cuts to BART, Caltrain, SFMTA and AC Transit. It also found majority support (55 percent) in these four counties for a variable tax option that included a half-cent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa and San Mateo and a higher (0.875 cent) sales tax in San Francisco.  

“While it’s good to see most voters would support a measure of these types, support is well below the two-thirds threshold that would be required if MTC were to place the measure on the ballot,” noted Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Commissioner and Pleasant Hill City Councilmember Sue Noack. “This means any near-term path would need to be via a citizen’s initiative, which would require a broad coalition to gather the needed signatures as well as strong campaign leadership.”   

The poll results show transportation ranks comparatively low on the list of voters’ concerns when respondents were asked an open-ended question (affordable housing, drugs/crime and homelessness top the list) but awareness of the post-pandemic challenges faced by transit agencies is high, with over two-thirds of the voters polled saying Bay Area public transit needs more funding.  

“Transit has an irreplaceable role in our region, being the only source of transportation for many essential workers, people of color and working-class families,” Arreguín added. “As we continue our recovery from the pandemic, securing funding to public transit is required to ensure a stronger, more resilient economy for all of us in the Bay Area.”  

A third tax framework for which EMC Research polled Bay Area voters involved a measure that would be funded by a combination of a half-cent sales tax and a nine-cents per square foot parcel tax over 30 years to funds pothole repairs and highway improvements in addition to transit improvements. Support for this framework started at 51 percent but dipped to 44 percent after respondents heard opposing arguments. 

“These poll results show that public transportation continues to be important to Bay Area residents,” Wiener said. “People understand transit is essential for the Bay Area’s future and that we must not allow our major transit systems to unravel. While we continue our work to evaluate viable revenue options to maintain service, we need to continue educating the public about improvements public transportation providers have been making to the safety, cleanliness and reliability of transit services across the Bay Area.” 

MTC says it approved several policy provisions for inclusion in state legislation in December 2024 that would enable voters to consider a future ballot measure. These include requiring stronger oversight of transit agencies’ financial information and requiring transit agencies to adopt policies to help improve the transit customer experience as a condition for receiving new funds.