OP-ED: MTA $5.5 billion Brooklyn Queens Light Rail Interboro Express Connector November 2024 update

New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) Chairman Janno Lieber's announcement for the release of the request for proposals to support the federal National Environmental Policy Review Environmental Impact Statement along with preliminary design and engineering to advance the proposed $5.5 billion Brooklyn Queens Light Rail Interboro Express Connector project is wishful thinking. The $67 million in funding to pay for this work leaves the project with a potential shortfall in $5.43 billion in funding.

Over two years ago, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced that the MTA will move forward with the proposed Brooklyn Queens Light Rail Interborough Express Connector project. That same year, Lieber said that the estimated cost would be under $10 billion. The current cost estimate of $5.5 billion for the selection of light rail versus subway or commuter rail is not validated by any preliminary or final design and engineering efforts.

The final price tag will be higher with the announcement that the scope of work will now include tunneling under the All Faiths Cemetary in Middle Village Queens. It will now include a new tunnel under the cemetery versus running at street level along Metropolitan Avenue in Middle Village Queens. This will easily increase the overall project cost between several hundred million to one billion or more dollars above the current $5.5 billion. The MTA has a history of low-balling project costs by hiding both financing and debt service payments under the agency operating rather than capital budget. 

The proposed route of the Brooklyn - Queens Connector runs from Jackson Heights, Queens and terminates in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. There are serious legal and operational issues to be resolved with the Federal RailRoad Administration. They have regulatory jurisdiction over significant portions of the proposed route, which would run adjacent to existing active freight tracks. Light rail and freight trains have to coexist on the same narrow corridor.   

Project costs will include a series of new light-rail stations with elevators and escalators. This is necessary to provide transfer capacity with 17 subway and one Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) stations that intersect along the route. Connecting to each subway or commuter rail station could easily cost anywhere from $100 to $200 million (Imagine the costs of escalators and elevators to be in compliance with ADA).  

Add to that new track, communications and signal systems, power, power substations, a hundred or more new light-rail cars ($2 million per car) and recommended environmental remediation activities as a result of the future NEPA EIS finding. This additional fleet would require construction of a new maintenance, operations and storage yard for several hundred million dollars. What community would be willing to host such a facility?  

There are also costs for reconstructing 45 bridges, widening miles of embankment and viaduct to make space for additional tracks, renovating the 151-year-old East New York tunnel or construction of a new tunnel to meet operational and safety requirements and relocating portions of the Buckeye pipeline. There is also a potential serious conflict at the Bay Ridge, Brooklyn terminus. This is also a site for a connection to the proposed $10 billion Cross Harbor Freight Tunnel project.  

The most obvious source of funding from Washington would be requesting and being granted permission from the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) to enter its Capital Investment Grant (CIG) New Starts Core Capacity national competitive discretionary grant program. In September 2023, New York Gov. Hochul directed Lieber to enter this project into the FTA New Starts Core Capacity Grant program. This has been unsuccessful to date.

The project was not included in the March 11, 2024, announcement from United States Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. This concerned President Biden’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 budget request under the Annual Report on Funding Recommendations FY25 CIG New Starts Core Capacity Program and Expedited Project Delivery Pilot Program for the FTA. 

This would have been the federal funding source to finance this project. For a project of this size and cost, it can average five years before MTA would complete this process from start to finish. Upon completion, FTA would offer the MTA a CIG Full Funding Grant Agreement (FFGA), which provides actual federal funding.  

This process was used to fund both the MTA $11.2 billion (plus $600 million in long-term debt service payments) LIRR East Side Access to Grand Central Madison, New York City (NYC) Transit $4.5 billion Second Avenue Subway Phase 1 and NYC Transit $7.7 billion Second Avenue Subway Phase 2.   

1. Three critical requirements under CIG FFGA are:
   MTA has a dedicated local share to match the federal share under the FFGA.
2. Legally has to cover any cost overruns, as the FFGA caps the total federal share of costs.
3. There is sufficient local funding upon project completion to maintain and operate the new transit system capital investment and service.  

How will the MTA comply with this with the looming multi-billion multi-year ongoing financial deficit, growing long term debt currently at $48 billion, $700 million in annual fare evasion, over $1 billion in annual employee overtime, along with growing employee medical, salary and pension costs in future years?

Anticipated daily riders upon opening of service between 74,000 to 88,000 is based upon transportation ridership forecasting modeling will have to be periodically updated. The same holds true for an anticipated 115,000 daily riders in 2045.  

These numbers may be overly optimistic. The service plan calls for five-minute headway between trains at rush hour and 10-minute headway off peak. There is no available information concerning operating costs to subsidize this level of service. How will the MTA find these additional funds within their operating budget upon start of service?

The $2.75 billion in the new proposed MTA $68 billion 2025 - 2029 Five Year Capital plan is counting on currently non existent matching $2.75 billion in federal dollars. This FTA share is based upon the now outdated $5.5 billion cost estimate. Adding tunneling to the scope of work will require even more funding from the FTA to complete the funding package could easily grow to between $6 and $7 billion for construction to start. 

The proposed $68 billion 2025 -2029 Five Year Capital Plan is short $33 billion. I predict that this project will be the first to be dropped. This would reduce the shortfall for the $68 billion Five Year Capital Plan to $30.3 billion. Funding for safety and state of good repair capital projects are a higher priority than any system expansion projects. Consideration of funding for this project should be postponed until the next MTA 2030 - 2034 Five Year Capital Plan.

Completion of the planning feasibility study for this project was just the first of many steps. Based upon past history for other MTA mega projects, even if the funding is eventually found, don't be surprised if it requires another 15 to 20 years before opening day of service. Most of the five million pre COVID-19 and current four million riders would prefer clean, safe, reliable service at a reasonable price before any system expansion projects such as the $5.5 billion Brooklyn Queens Light Rail Connector and others.